Welcome

We are delighted to welcome you to the Middle East's premier security summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue 2022.

This year’s Dialogue will be an in-person event, which will also be broadcast online.

The theme of this year’s IISS Manama Dialogue is ‘Rules and Competition in the Middle East’. At a time of significant challenges to the rules-based order, the Dialogue will provide a timely opportunity to examine their effect on interests, influence and values in the Middle East, and beyond.

Wherever you are in the world, this platform will allow you to engage fully with the debate in Manama.

Watch every plenary session as it happens with our live streams, with audio available in both English and Arabic.

If you want to catch up on any sessions, video recordings and session transcripts will be added to this platform throughout the Dialogue.

All times listed refer to Arabia Standard Time (AST).

On Demand

Immerse yourself in the debate in Manama with these downloadable video recordings of each session.
This page will be updated on a rolling basis as the Dialogue gets under way.

Assessing the geopolitics of the Middle East

What issues will be most preoccupying policymakers at the IISS Manama Dialogue?

In this preview of the Dialogue debate, Emile Hokayem, our Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, explains how, despite recent détente, long-standing regional geopolitical challenges persist, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added a new level of geopolitical and economic turbulence to which the Middle East is very exposed.

Understanding Iran's arms transfers to Russia

How and why is Iran transferring arms to Russia?

Ahead of the IISS Manama Dialogue, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace Douglas Barrie offers his insights into the systems involved and what each side stands to gain.

Analysing Middle Eastern defence economics

What’s the current defence-economic picture across the Middle East and North Africa?

Ahead of the IISS Manama Dialogue, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics Fenella McGerty analyses the shifting economic conditions across the Middle East and what those mean for defence spending.

Assessing Russia–Middle East relations since the invasion of Ukraine

How is an isolated Russia navigating its relationships with the Middle East?

Our Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Nigel Gould-Davies, puts the forthcoming debate at the IISS Manama Dialogue into context.

Understanding what Iran's protests mean for the Islamic regime

Are the current protests in Iran putting the regime in peril?

They are an important reminder of a deep-seated challenge – how to pass on the torch of the revolution to a generation that has little interest in perpetuating the Islamic regime, explains our Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, John Raine, in this preview of the debate at the IISS Manama Dialogue.

Introducing Armed Conflict Survey 2022

Published annually by the IISS, Armed Conflict Survey sheds light on conflict drivers at the domestic, regional and global levels, while assessing current developments and trends in the conflict landscape, including potential hotspots and political risks.

Understanding what Iran's protests mean for the Islamic regime

Arab Gulf states are using aid investments and other capital flows to shape the political environment across the Middle East and beyond. What does this mean for the regional political and security environment? A new IISS study will shed light on Gulf bailout interventions.
Friday 18th November 2022

The Armed Conflict Survey Launch 2022

The IISS will launch the 2022 edition of the Armed Conflict Survey – its annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of conflict worldwide – at the 2022 Manama Dialogue. A panel of IISS experts will discuss the key findings of this year’s book and offer their thoughts on the trajectories of the major active conflicts.

The Imperative of Partnership in the New Middle East

United States Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Dr Colin Kahl, will outline the major findings of the newly released US National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. He will emphasise how changes in US defence policies and postures affect US objectives and strategy in the Middle East.

Keynote Address & Opening Dinner

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has called on the EU to play a greater geopolitical role. In this Keynote Address, Dr von der Leyen will outline the Commission’s approach to the current geopolitical environment. In particular, she will discuss how the EU is mitigating the first- and second-order effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. She will also present the EU’s new strategy for the Gulf region and discuss European regional security interests.
Saturday 19th November 2022

First Plenary Session: The Changing Geopolitics of Energy

This plenary will examine the relationship between geopolitics and energy policies. The Ukraine conflict, energy transition and national development plans, as well as physical threats to production and exports, have considerably affected long-held assumptions about energy security, compelling exporting and importing states to conduct more active energy diplomacy.

Second Plenary Session: Impact of Extra-Regional Conflicts on Middle East Security

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and tensions between the US and China have highlighted the significant exposure of the Middle East to extra-regional conflicts. This is manifest in various forms including the veto-driven impotence of the United Nations Security Council, rising food and commodity prices, concerns about future defence relations, and new geopolitical alignments seeking ‘strategic diversification’. This plenary will examine how countries are navigating this new landscape.

Third Plenary Session: Defence Modernisation and New Technologies

In response to a heightened sense of global insecurity, international and regional powers are increasingly investing in the modernisation of their armed forces, and the development and acquisition of new technologies. This trend is evident across the Arab and Western worlds, where concerns about aerial defence, the return to conventional warfare and the emergence of AI defence technologies increasingly drive policy and budgetary decisions. This panel will discuss how major powers are approaching this issue.

Fourth Plenary Session: Middle East Initiatives for Regional Conflict Resolution

In recent years, there has been renewed diplomatic activity among Middle Eastern nations to de-escalate conflict and competition. These have included Saudi–Iran talks, Iraq–Jordan–Egypt talks, and diplomatic compromises between major regional powers. New ideas about the regional management and possible resolution of the Syrian, Yemeni and Libyan crises have also emerged. This plenary will discuss the status and prospects of this diplomatic resurgence.
Sunday 20th November 2022

Fifth Plenary Session: Security of the Global Maritime Choke Points

This session will discuss the nexus of geopolitics and maritime security. In recent years, threats to navigation have risen as great-power and regional competition plays out in the maritime domain, new technologies are deployed, and states demonstrate a greater desire to test and challenge rivals. Importantly, armed non-state actors are keen to threaten and disrupt, as the Houthis have done in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Hizbullah in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Al-Shabaab along the Horn of Africa.

Sixth Plenary Session: New Security Partnerships in the Middle East

New security partnerships have emerged in recent years in the Middle East, driven by converging security perceptions and increasing defence diplomacy. This is notably the case between Gulf and Mediterranean powers, and between Israel, India, the UAE and the US. These partnerships have taken various forms short of security guarantees. This session will examine the prospects for greater strategic and diplomatic alignment among these actors.

Concluding Plenary Session: Middle East Politics in a Global Context

Global dynamics are affecting Middle Eastern security in significant ways. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, US–China tensions, the repercussions of the Covid-19 crisis and the energy transition are changing the preferences and policies of Middle Eastern states, reshaping how they interact with each other and with their external partners. This IISS panel will provide expert analysis of these changes.

Resources

Immerse yourself in the debate in Manama with these downloadable video recordings of each session.
This page will be updated on a rolling basis as the Dialogue gets under way.

Publications

IISS analysts deliver impartial, rigorous analysis of the world’s most significant strategic challenges. Explore their latest thinking on the Middle East in this exclusive selection of publications, which you can download for free.

Armed Conflict Survey 2022

Armed Conflict Survey 2022

Strategic Survey 2022

Strategic Survey 2022